4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 22

Cleveland Browns 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short right to 87-S.DeValve to PIT 14 for 8 yards (95-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +1.79 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.75 EP