4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
NO Away

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Thursday 2016-11-17 · 20:25 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

NO
52.3%
CAR
47.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.273 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NO defense: +0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Cam Newton (CAR): +0.067 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NO 24
–
CAR 23
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

NO

Terron Armstead T Out Knee
Daniel Lasco RB Out Hamstring
Delvin Breaux CB Questionable Fibula
Travaris Cadet RB Questionable Toe

CAR

A.J. Klein LB Out Concussion
Michael Oher T Out Concussion
Colin Jones S Out Concussion
Gino Gradkowski C Questionable Knee
Ryan Kalil C Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 20
–
CAR 23

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:34 FG CAR (8:34) 9-G.Gano 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. NO 0 – CAR 3
  • Q1 00:40 FG NO (:40) 3-W.Lutz 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 3 – CAR 3
  • Q2 05:43 TD CAR (5:43) 28-J.Stewart up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 3 – CAR 9
  • Q2 02:55 FG CAR (2:55) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. NO 3 – CAR 13
  • Q2 00:23 TD CAR (:23) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep middle to 19-T.Ginn [90-N.Fairley]. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 19-T.Ginn for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-N.Fairley]. NO 3 – CAR 19
  • Q3 08:23 FG CAR (8:23) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. NO 3 – CAR 23
  • Q4 15:00 FG NO (15:00) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 6 – CAR 23
  • Q4 11:27 TD NO (11:27) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 16-B.Coleman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 12 – CAR 23
  • Q4 02:56 TD NO (2:56) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 82-C.Fleener for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 19 – CAR 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

    (8:34) 9-G.Gano 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.84 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%

    (:40) 3-W.Lutz 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 12 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 22%

    (13:36) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to NO 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-27-R.McClain.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:41) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to CAR 27, Center-47-J.Drescher. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 38 for 11 yards (89-J.Hill).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 18 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 55%

    (9:32) 5-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (4:18) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to CAR 49, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 70%

    (2:55) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%

    (:39) 3-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-V.Butler), Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead, RECOVERED by CAR-59-L.Kuechly at CAR 12. 59-L.Kuechly for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on CAR-24-J.Bradberry, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 30.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 12 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 85%

    (8:23) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 53%

    (5:43) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 10-B.Cooks pushed ob at CAR 33 for 6 yards (24-J.Bradberry).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

    (2:27) 9-D.Brees up the middle to CAR 13 for 1 yard (98-S.Lotulelei).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 9 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (15:00) 3-W.Lutz 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to NO 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 23-M.Murphy to NO 49 for 22 yards (43-F.Whittaker).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 15 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:55) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to NO 31, Center-44-J.Jansen. 23-M.Murphy to NO 39 for 8 yards (44-J.Jansen; 55-D.Mayo).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:05) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to CAR 8, Center-47-J.Drescher. 19-T.Ginn MUFFS catch, and recovers at CAR 8. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 7 for -1 yards (19-J.Lampman).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (8:14) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to NO 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 23-M.Murphy to NO 34 for 5 yards (55-D.Mayo). PENALTY on NO-54-N.Stupar, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 34.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:28) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to NO 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 23-M.Murphy to NO 24 for 11 yards (52-J.Norris; 54-S.Thompson). PENALTY on NO-54-N.Stupar, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 24.