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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 85

Carolina Panthers 23 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to NO 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 23-M.Murphy to NO 34 for 5 yards (55-D.Mayo). PENALTY on NO-54-N.Stupar, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 34.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.72 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 85, worth -4.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 43, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP