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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 14

New Orleans Saints 3 – Carolina Panthers 23

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 9-D.Brees up the middle to CAR 13 for 1 yard (98-S.Lotulelei).

The Three Options

GO +3.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.06 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model