4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 39

New Orleans Saints 3 – Carolina Panthers 23

What Actually Happened

(5:43) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 10-B.Cooks pushed ob at CAR 33 for 6 yards (24-J.Bradberry).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.62 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model