Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 23 – New Orleans Saints 13

(10:55) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to NO 31, Center-44-J.Jansen. 23-M.Murphy to NO 39 for 8 yards (44-J.Jansen; 55-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.00 EP
71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model