Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 77

Carolina Panthers 23 – New Orleans Saints 6

(13:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to NO 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 23-M.Murphy to NO 49 for 22 yards (43-F.Whittaker).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.17 EP
56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 77, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model