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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 77

New Orleans Saints 3 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to CAR 27, Center-47-J.Drescher. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 38 for 11 yards (89-J.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.20 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model