Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 58

New Orleans Saints 13 – Carolina Panthers 23

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to CAR 8, Center-47-J.Drescher. 19-T.Ginn MUFFS catch, and recovers at CAR 8. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 7 for -1 yards (19-J.Lampman).

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.66 EP
60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model