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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 52

Carolina Panthers 3 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to NO 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-27-R.McClain.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.47 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 52, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 15, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model