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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 32

Carolina Panthers 10 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.33 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model