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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 9

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(:40) 3-W.Lutz 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +3.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.34 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.84 EP