4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
KC Away

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2016-11-13 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

KC
41.4%
CAR
58.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: -0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.005 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 21
–
CAR 24
Projected margin: CAR by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

KC

Jaye Howard DE Out Hip
Jeremy Maclin WR Out Groin
Justin Houston LB Out Knee
D.J. White CB Doubtful Hand
Derrick Johnson LB Questionable Hamstring

CAR

Colin Jones S Out Concussion
Michael Oher T Out Concussion
Ryan Kalil C Questionable Shoulder
Kyle Love DT Questionable Knee
Vernon Butler DT Questionable Ankle
Gino Gradkowski C Questionable Knee
Shaq Thompson LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 20
–
CAR 17

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:52 FG CAR (10:52) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee. KC 0 – CAR 3
  • Q2 09:12 TD CAR (9:12) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – CAR 9
  • Q2 02:00 TD CAR (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 17-D.Funchess for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – CAR 16
  • Q2 00:15 FG KC (:15) 5-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 3 – CAR 17
  • Q4 12:07 FG KC (12:07) 5-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 6 – CAR 17
  • Q4 10:51 TD KC (10:51) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 88-G.Olsen INTERCEPTED by 29-E.Berry [49-D.Sorensen] at CAR 42. 29-E.Berry for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 12 – CAR 17
  • Q4 04:28 FG KC (4:28) 5-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 17 – CAR 17
  • Q4 00:04 FG KC (:04) 5-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 20 – CAR 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 85%

    (10:52) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (5:51) 8-A.Lee punts 43 yards to KC 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-T.Hill to KC 25 for 6 yards (27-R.McClain; 55-D.Mayo).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:09) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to CAR 26, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:43) 9-G.Gano punts 42 yards to KC 28, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-T.Hill MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 27. 10-T.Hill to KC 27 for no gain (57-J.Cash).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (15:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 22%

    (5:35) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to CAR 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 40%

    (:50) 32-S.Ware left end pushed ob at CAR 35 for 9 yards (24-J.Bradberry). Jah Reid reported as eligible

  • Q2 KC 4th & 14 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 76%

    (:15) 5-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:37) 2-D.Colquitt punts 47 yards to CAR 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 28%

    (4:21) 1-C.Newton up the middle to KC 48 for 1 yard (99-R.Nunez-Roches; 98-K.Reyes). Chris Scott reported as eligible

  • Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 91%

    (12:07) 5-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:49) 9-G.Gano punts 43 yards to KC 30, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-T.Hill to CAR 49 for 21 yards (9-G.Gano).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 94%

    (4:28) 5-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:56) 9-G.Gano punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 15 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:43) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to CAR 21, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-T.Ginn ran ob at CAR 33 for 12 yards (41-J.Winchester). PENALTY on CAR-55-D.Mayo, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 30.