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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 24

Carolina Panthers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 9-G.Gano 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.13 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model