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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 14

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 5-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.89 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP