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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 29

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(:15) 5-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +3.46 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model