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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 18

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 5-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.32 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model