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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 49

Carolina Panthers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 1-C.Newton up the middle to KC 48 for 1 yard (99-R.Nunez-Roches; 98-K.Reyes). Chris Scott reported as eligible

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.73 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model