Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 73

Carolina Panthers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

(7:49) 9-G.Gano punts 43 yards to KC 30, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-T.Hill to CAR 49 for 21 yards (9-G.Gano).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.31 EP
51% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model