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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 64

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.64 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 22, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP