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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 54

Carolina Panthers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 9-G.Gano punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.87 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 54, worth -1.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 16, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model