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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 52

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to CAR 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.08 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.75 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model