Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(1:43) 9-G.Gano punts 42 yards to KC 28, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-T.Hill MUFFS catch, and recovers at KC 27. 10-T.Hill to KC 27 for no gain (57-J.Cash).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.37 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model