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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
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New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
Sunday 2016-11-06 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

PHI
50.0%
NYG
50.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG on 7 more days rest than PHI
  • NYG offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.122 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Carson Wentz (PHI): +0.119 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PHI 22
–
NYG 23
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

PHI

Allen Barbre G Out Hamstring
Kamu Grugier-Hill LB Out Hamstring
Taylor Hart DT Questionable Ankle
Bennie Logan DT Questionable Groin

NYG

Darian Thompson S Out Foot
Kerry Wynn DE Out Concussion
Nat Berhe S Questionable Concussion
Ryan Nassib QB Questionable right Elbow
Marshall Newhouse T Questionable Calf
Bobby Rainey RB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 23
–
NYG 28

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:36 TD NYG (12:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 13-O.Beckham for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – NYG 6
  • Q1 09:50 TD NYG (9:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle to 82-R.Lewis for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – NYG 13
  • Q1 05:55 FG PHI (5:55) 6-C.Sturgis 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 3 – NYG 14
  • Q2 12:19 TD PHI (12:19) 24-R.Mathews left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – NYG 14
  • Q2 09:36 TD NYG (9:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 13-O.Beckham for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 10 – NYG 20
  • Q3 12:26 TD PHI (12:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-K.Barner right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – NYG 21
  • Q3 07:50 TD NYG (7:50) (No Huddle) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 87-S.Shepard for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-B.Graham]. Penalty on PHI-27-M.Jenkins, Defensive Holding, declined. PHI 17 – NYG 27
  • Q4 12:06 FG PHI (12:06) 6-C.Sturgis 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 20 – NYG 28
  • Q4 03:55 FG PHI (3:55) 6-C.Sturgis 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 23 – NYG 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (14:15) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to PHI 28, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 15 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 93%

    (5:55) 6-C.Sturgis 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 13 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:43) 9-B.Wing punts 39 yards to PHI 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 85%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz left end to NYG 27 for -4 yards (20-J.Jenkins, 98-D.Harrison).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 16 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:57) 9-B.Wing punts 58 yards to PHI 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 43-D.Sproles pushed ob at PHI 30 for 10 yards (82-R.Lewis, 52-J.Casillas).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (7:35) 8-D.Jones punts 48 yards to NYG 21, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:42) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to PHI 19, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 43-D.Sproles pushed ob at NYG 15 for 66 yards (57-K.Robinson).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 97%

    (3:55) 43-D.Sproles right tackle to NYG 6 for no gain (98-D.Harrison, 91-K.Sheppard).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (2:29) 9-B.Wing punts 56 yards to PHI 29, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-94-M.Herzlich.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 87%

    (1:19) 6-C.Sturgis 40 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-J.Pierre-Paul), Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones, RECOVERED by NYG-20-J.Jenkins at NYG 33. 20-J.Jenkins to NYG 46 for 13 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by NYG-94-M.Herzlich at PHI 47. 94-M.Herzlich to PHI 47 for no gain (79-B.Brooks).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 48%

    (:23) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep right to 13-O.Beckham.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:06) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to NYG 30, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 17-D.Harris to NYG 40 for 10 yards (42-C.Maragos, 52-N.Goode).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 20 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 35%

    (4:35) 9-B.Wing punts 33 yards to PHI 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 97%

    (12:06) 6-C.Sturgis 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 20%

    (8:44) 8-D.Jones punts 48 yards to NYG 4, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-22-N.Carroll.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:11) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to NYG 47, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 32%

    (6:12) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 81-J.Matthews to NYG 21 for 25 yards (33-A.Adams, 57-K.Robinson).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 88%

    (3:55) 6-C.Sturgis 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 17 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%

    (1:28) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep right to 81-J.Matthews.