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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 52

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – New York Giants 28

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 8-D.Jones punts 48 yards to NYG 4, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-22-N.Carroll.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.38 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 52, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.71 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP