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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 78

New York Giants 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(13:57) 9-B.Wing punts 58 yards to PHI 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 43-D.Sproles pushed ob at PHI 30 for 10 yards (82-R.Lewis, 52-J.Casillas).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.28 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 78, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 35, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model