Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 93

New York Giants 28 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

(7:11) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to NYG 47, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.72 EP
60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 93, worth -5.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model