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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 46

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – New York Giants 28

What Actually Happened

(6:12) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 81-J.Matthews to NYG 21 for 25 yards (33-A.Adams, 57-K.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.18 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 13, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model