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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 16

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 6-C.Sturgis 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 16, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 26, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model