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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 22

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New York Giants 21

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 6-C.Sturgis 40 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-J.Pierre-Paul), Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones, RECOVERED by NYG-20-J.Jenkins at NYG 33. 20-J.Jenkins to NYG 46 for 13 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by NYG-94-M.Herzlich at PHI 47. 94-M.Herzlich to PHI 47 for no gain (79-B.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.96 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model