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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 59

New York Giants 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 9-B.Wing punts 39 yards to PHI 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.17 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model