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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New York Giants
4th & 3 at the 40
New York Giants 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 10
What Actually Happened
(:23) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep right to 13-O.Beckham.
The Three Options
GO
+0.63 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.51 EP
- 52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -1.09 EP
KICK
+0.39 EP
- 48% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.61 EP
- 52% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT
-0.12 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
