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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 69

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 9-B.Wing punts 41 yards to PHI 28, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 27, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model