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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 6

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New York Giants 21

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 43-D.Sproles right tackle to NYG 6 for no gain (98-D.Harrison, 91-K.Sheppard).

The Three Options

GO +3.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.67 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 6, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model