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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
Sunday 2016-10-16 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

JAX
45.8%
CHI
54.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • JAX on 7 more days rest than CHI
  • CHI offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Brian Hoyer (CHI) -0.030 vs Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.023 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

JAX 20
–
CHI 22
Projected margin: CHI by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

JAX

Neal Sterling TE Questionable Foot
Corey Grant RB Questionable Toe
Rashad Greene WR Questionable Achilles

CHI

Deiondre' Hall CB Out Ankle
Jay Cutler QB Doubtful right Thumb
Eddie Goldman DT Doubtful Ankle
Jeremy Langford RB Doubtful Ankle
Leonard Floyd LB Questionable Calf
Eddie Royal WR Questionable Calf
Sam Acho LB Questionable Ribs
Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Hamstring
Ka'Deem Carey RB Questionable Hamstring
Jerrell Freeman LB Questionable Wrist
Alshon Jeffery WR Questionable Hamstring
Kyle Long G Questionable Shoulder
Bobby Massie T Questionable Ankle
Zach Miller TE Questionable Ribs
Tracy Porter CB Questionable Knee
Josh Sitton G Questionable Shoulder
Willie Young LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 17
–
CHI 16

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:17 FG CHI (14:17) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. JAX 0 – CHI 3
  • Q2 04:32 TD CHI (4:32) 24-J.Howard right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – CHI 9
  • Q3 01:57 FG CHI (1:57) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. JAX 0 – CHI 13
  • Q4 14:53 TD JAX (14:53) 64-C.Reed and 93-T.Alualu reported in as eligible. 33-C.Ivory right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – CHI 13
  • Q4 08:33 FG CHI (8:33) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. JAX 7 – CHI 16
  • Q4 05:03 FG JAX (5:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 10 – CHI 16
  • Q4 02:58 TD JAX (2:58) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 17-A.Benn for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 16 – CHI 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 44%

    (11:46) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 32 yards to JAX 10, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-11-J.Bellamy.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 91%

    (14:17) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (12:11) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 60 yards to CHI 9, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-E.Royal to CHI 14 for 5 yards (52-H.Pullard).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 16 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:55) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 45 yards to CHI 22, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 34%

    (:18) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to JAX 9, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:02) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 58 yards to CHI 19, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-E.Royal to CHI 30 for 11 yards (44-M.Jack). PENALTY on CHI-39-J.Glenn, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 19.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (12:05) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to JAX 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-M.Lee to JAX 21 for 3 yards (11-J.Bellamy).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (10:23) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 53 yards to CHI 19, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-E.Royal pushed ob at CHI 28 for 9 yards (17-A.Benn).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (9:24) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to JAX 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-M.Lee.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (7:50) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 59 yards to CHI 20, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-25-P.Thompson.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (1:57) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:23) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to JAX 16, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-M.Lee.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 12 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (8:33) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 6 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (5:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:25) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to JAX 22, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-M.Lee.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 29%

    (1:03) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass incomplete deep middle to 17-A.Jeffery (20-J.Ramsey).