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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 18

Chicago Bears 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(14:17) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.09 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 18, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 28, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model