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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 16 at the 67

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 45 yards to CHI 22, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.36 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 25, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model