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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 59

Chicago Bears 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(12:23) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to JAX 16, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-M.Lee.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.58 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 59, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model