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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 6

Chicago Bears 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(1:57) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 6, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model