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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(10:23) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 53 yards to CHI 19, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-E.Royal pushed ob at CHI 28 for 9 yards (17-A.Benn).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.25 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model