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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 48

Chicago Bears 16 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(1:03) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass incomplete deep middle to 17-A.Jeffery (20-J.Ramsey).

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.33 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -1.29 EP
KICK -0.21 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model