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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 68

Chicago Bears 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(12:05) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to JAX 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-M.Lee to JAX 21 for 3 yards (11-J.Bellamy).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.88 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 68, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 26, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model