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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 64

Chicago Bears 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(9:24) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to JAX 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-M.Lee.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.12 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 64, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 22, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP