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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 42

Chicago Bears 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:46) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 32 yards to JAX 10, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-11-J.Bellamy.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.70 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP