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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 79

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(7:50) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 59 yards to CHI 20, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-25-P.Thompson.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.80 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 79, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 36, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model