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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2016-10-09 · 13:00 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

NYJ
38.2%
PIT
61.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT defense: -0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): +0.149 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYJ defense: -0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 20
–
PIT 24
Projected margin: PIT by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

NYJ

Braedon Bowman TE Out Knee
Eric Decker WR Out Shoulder
Bryce Petty QB Out right Shoulder
Brian Winters G Out Concussion
Darrelle Revis CB Doubtful Hamstring
Jalin Marshall WR Doubtful Shoulder
Quincy Enunwa WR Questionable Knee

PIT

Justin Gilbert CB Out Knee
Marcus Gilbert T Out Ankle
Robert Golden S Out Hamstring
Senquez Golson CB Out Foot
Ryan Harris T Out Shin
Eli Rogers WR Out Toe
Ryan Shazier LB Out Knee
Cody Wallace C Out Knee
Roosevelt Nix RB Out Back

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 13
–
PIT 31

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:50 FG NYJ (11:50) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 3 – PIT 0
  • Q1 10:25 TD PIT (10:25) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 14-S.Coates for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – PIT 6
  • Q2 11:12 FG NYJ (11:12) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 6 – PIT 7
  • Q2 02:11 TD NYJ (2:11) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 15-B.Marshall for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 12 – PIT 7
  • Q2 00:44 TD PIT (:44) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 81-J.James for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – PIT 13
  • Q3 10:27 FG PIT (10:27) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. NYJ 13 – PIT 17
  • Q4 15:00 TD PIT (15:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 84-A.Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – PIT 23
  • Q4 01:51 TD PIT (1:51) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 14-S.Coates for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – PIT 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 92%

    (11:50) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 42%

    (6:09) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Purdum, Touchback.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 15 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:54) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to NYJ 11, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 73%

    (11:12) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 77%

    (6:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Berry right end to NYJ 31 for -3 yards (45-R.Miles). FUMBLES (45-R.Miles), ball out of bounds at NYJ 27. Penalty on PIT-78-A.Villanueva, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:45) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to NYJ 13, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-20-A.Shabazz.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:36) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to PIT 36, Center-46-T.Purdum. 84-A.Brown to NYJ 31 for 33 yards (25-C.Pryor).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 75%

    (10:27) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (9:17) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to PIT 16, Center-46-T.Purdum. 84-A.Brown ran ob at PIT 34 for 18 yards (25-C.Pryor).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 9 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:16) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 52 yards to NYJ 13, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 24%

    (4:16) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Purdum, Touchback.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:08) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 33 yards to PIT 38, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-95-J.Martin.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (7:36) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 33 yards to PIT 21, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:56) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 29-B.Powell to NYJ 44 for -2 yards (94-L.Timmons).