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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 17

New York Jets 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:50) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +2.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.71 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 17, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP