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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 42

New York Jets 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:09) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Purdum, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.57 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model