Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – New York Jets 3

(:54) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to NYJ 11, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.49 EP
74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model