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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 66

New York Jets 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:17) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to PIT 16, Center-46-T.Purdum. 84-A.Brown ran ob at PIT 34 for 18 yards (25-C.Pryor).

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP